CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF 1.5ºC WARMER SCENARIO
Heightened regulatory and investor action towards a net zero future has raised the bar for more decisive corporate action. Since 2018, CDL has been conducting climate change scenario planning to better understand how different levels of global mean temperature change and socioeconomic development can impact our business.
In December 2021, CDL commenced our third study to include relevant climate-related impacts of COVID-19 and key COP26 outcomes, building on the previous studies. The findings will be based on latest1 research and scenario analysis from IPCC, IEA, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), World Bank and other relevant climate science datasets.
1 | CDL’s third climate change scenario study is using data and technical resources corresponding to the second set of NGFS scenarios published in June 2021 via the NGFS Scenarios Portal. |
Parameters | 1st Study: 2018 | 2nd Study: 2019 – 2020 | 3rd Study: 2021 – 2022 |
Climate Scenarios | 2°C and 4°C warmer scenario | 1.5°C and 2°C warmer scenario | Orderly scenarios – Net Zero by 2050 (1.5°C) Disorderly scenarios – Delayed Transition (2°C) Note: Terminologies from NGFS’s Framework |
Types of risks | Physical and Transition Risks | ||
Timeframe | 2030 | Short term : Present – 2030 Medium term : 2030 – 2050 Long term : 2050 – 2100 |
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Baseline year | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 (with 2020 caveats included where relevant) |
Business units | Development Properties, Investment Properties and Hotel Operations |
Global and national developments unfolding from key COP26 outcomes and the climate-related impacts of COVID-19 remain the most significant drivers for climate-related risks in many sectors. By determining the financial impacts from these developments, CDL can better plan for our resilience strategies.
Overview of Transition Risks Covered in the 3rd Study
Key COP 26 Outcomes | ||
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Potentially Relevant Impact of COVID-192 | ||||
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1 | The Glasgow Breakthrough is an international collaboration framework for clean technology, with five key areas: power, road transport, steel, hydrogen, and agriculture. |
2 | Temporary impacts are not considered to be relevant for the study’s 2030 timeframe. |