Heightened regulatory and investor action towards a net zero future has raised the bar for more decisive corporate action. Since 2018, CDL has been conducting climate change scenario planning to better understand how different levels of global mean temperature change and socioeconomic development can impact our business.

In December 2021, CDL commenced our third study to include relevant climate-related impacts of COVID-19 and key COP26 outcomes, building on the previous studies. The findings will be based on latest1 research and scenario analysis from IPCC, IEA, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), World Bank and other relevant climate science datasets.

1 CDL’s third climate change scenario study is using data and technical resources corresponding to the second set of NGFS scenarios published in June 2021 via the NGFS Scenarios Portal.


Parameters 1st Study: 2018 2nd Study: 2019 – 2020 3rd Study: 2021 – 2022
Climate Scenarios 2°C and 4°C warmer scenario 1.5°C and 2°C warmer scenario Orderly scenarios – Net Zero by 2050 (1.5°C)
Disorderly scenarios – Delayed Transition (2°C)
Note: Terminologies from NGFS’s Framework
Types of risks Physical and Transition Risks
Timeframe 2030 Short term : Present – 2030
Medium term : 2030 – 2050
Long term : 2050 – 2100
  • Singapore
  • China
  • UK
  • Singapore
  • China
  • UK
  • USA
  • Singapore
  • China
  • UK
  • USA
  • New Zealand
Baseline year 2016 2018 2019 (with 2020 caveats included where relevant)
Business units Development Properties, Investment Properties and Hotel Operations

Global and national developments unfolding from key COP26 outcomes and the climate-related impacts of COVID-19 remain the most significant drivers for climate-related risks in many sectors. By determining the financial impacts from these developments, CDL can better plan for our resilience strategies.

Overview of Transition Risks Covered in the 3rd Study

Key COP 26 Outcomes
  • Commitment to phase down coal power
  • Commitment to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030
  • Global methane pledge to reduce global methane emissions by 30%
  • Commitment to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles (EV)
  • Financial alliances (e.g. GFANZ and its US$130 trillion global financial pledge, net zero banking alliance) to support net zero targets, as well as climate funding to support adaptation efforts, including starting a dialogue for “loss and damage” conversations
  • Push for clean technology (e.g. Glasgow Breakthrough1)
  • Agreement on Paris Agreement Article 6 Rulebook, to facilitate international carbon markets while avoiding double-counting
Potentially Relevant Impact of COVID-192
  • Shift to hybrid work arrangements
  • Reduction in energy use and cost from building operations, in the longer term
  • Reduced demand for new developments
  • Waste generation from building occupancy impacted
  • New waste generated from masks and sanitation equipment
  • Increased awareness and momentum for ESG-related issues brought on by COVID-19 may promote EV uptake
  • In the near term, a substantial proportion of government funding could be set aside for COVID-19 relief measures and public health safety and economic recovery, ahead of greening efforts
  • Increased awareness and momentum for ESG-related issues brought on by COVID-19 may help to promote clean technology investments
1 The Glasgow Breakthrough is an international collaboration framework for clean technology, with five key areas: power, road transport, steel, hydrogen, and agriculture.
2 Temporary impacts are not considered to be relevant for the study’s 2030 timeframe.